000 AXNT20 KNHC 221755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE JAN 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 4N14W AND 3N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N22W TO 2N27W 1N32W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...TO 2S41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 11W...BETWEEN 14W AND 16W WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1N... WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 1N19W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG BETWEEN 49W AND 50W ALONG 1N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 13W AND 24W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N25W 6N30W 5N40W 4N51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A. IT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N76W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W...TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND ALONG THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS...TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE REST OF THE TEXAS COAST AS FAR AS 28N...ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ALONG 28N/29N... TO 31N102W IN WEST TEXAS...CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N102W INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE AREAS OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN AND DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR MARY ESTHER DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 300 TO 400 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W 25N80W...AND WITHIN 400 TO 500 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 25N80W 21N88W 15N92W. THE SKIES APPEAR TO BE CLEARING...COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING...TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF 29N91W 24N93W 23N95W 24N97W. SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THAT IS ABOUT 400 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA NORTHEASTWARD...BEYOND FLORIDA... INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEAR 13N101W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 28N107W...ABOUT 160 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY-TO- WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...ACROSS THE REST OF MEXICO...ACROSS THAT PART OF TEXAS THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 30N...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS WITH THE EASTERN U.S.A. TROUGH... AND THE SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY GULF OF MEXICO WIND FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS...TO MEXICO NEAR 19N97W...TO THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. THIS WIND FLOW REGIME IS PART OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BEYOND. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 13N55W...ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...AND BEYOND PUERTO RICO. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE CURVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N70W 14N80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 2N74W IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTHERN COLOMBIA TO 1N80W...TO 4N86W AND BEYOND 5N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE CURVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N70W 14N80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W...FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 23N65W 27N58W BEYOND 32N50W. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 13N55W...ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...AND BEYOND PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 27N74W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXTENDING FROM A 31N18W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N23W 16N35W 12N49W AND 10N54W...ABOUT 400 NM TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N28W...TO 32N38W 25N52W 24N62W AND 24N71W. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N77W 29N81W COLD FRONT AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECOND AREA HAS 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 39W. A THIRD AREA HAS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 40W AND 58W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT