000 AXNT20 KNHC 221115 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 3N15W 3N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 3N23W TO THE EQUATOR AND 30W TO 1S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 6W-15W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 140 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF 5-15 KT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF BY PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND EXTENDS WESTWARD TO 29N86W TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA NEAR 29N89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WEST ATLC AND ANTICYCLONIC FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT COVER THE REGION DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM WEST OF JAMAICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN BUT NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OBSERVED. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED OF 5 KT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVER THE WESTERN ATLC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY TRANSITIONED TO A SURFACE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM 30N66W 28N72W 26N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AZORES HIGH COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NORTH EAST ATLC N OF 26N EAST OF 28W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER THE EAST ATLC IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS AND N OF 16N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 10N-17N ENHANCED BY A CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND A BROAD RIDGE THAT IS OVER WEST AFRICA. ELSEWHERE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WEST ATLC WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR