000
AXNT20 KNHC 220545
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
7N13W TO 5N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 5N20W TO 3N30W TO THE EQUATOR AND 40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST 
OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
1N-10N BETWEEN 13W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF 5-15 KT OVER 
THE ENTIRE GULF. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER 
MOST OF THE GULF. PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF IS BEING SUPPORTED 
BY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST 
PACIFIC. A COLD FRONT STARTS TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF BY 
PENSACOLA AND EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MISSISSIPPI 
AND LOUISIANA NEAR 30N89W. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONT 
AND POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE AFFECTING THE 
NORTH AND EAST REGIONS OF THE GULF. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF 
10-15 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THIS PERIOD.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT 
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE 
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF 
COLOMBIA...NORTHEASTERLIES WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT COVER THE REGION 
DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A LOW LOCATED OVER 
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. LIGHTER NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 
5-15 KT COVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM WEST OF JAMAICA TO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE 
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL 
NARROW TROUGH WITH AXIS SOUTH OF JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW OVER 
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM 30N68W TO 28N72W 26N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WEST OF 73W 
N OF 27N BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM 
THE EAST PACIFIC. SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR THE 
AZORES COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. A DISSIPATING COLD 
FRONT IS N OF 28N EAST OF 23W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO 21N AND EAST OF 20W. 
ELSEWHERE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WITHIN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS...THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WEST ATLC 
WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER 
THE WEST ATLC. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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NR