000
AXNT20 KNHC 212355
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 
5N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
5N21W TO 4N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S43W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 14W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS 
MOVING SE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE N GULF 
OF MEXICO. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO SE TEXAS. PATCHES OF 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS DOT THE GULF. SOME COLD AIR 
ADVECTION REMAINS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS 
OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO 
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SHOWERS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. 
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER GUATEMALA...BELIZE...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...HONDURAS... 
AND NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER JAMAICA... 
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N68W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 30N71W TO S FLORIDA 
NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 
LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N32W. 
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO NEAR 31N10W TO N OF THE 
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N20W TO 20N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 45W.  
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH  
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 32N62W 
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA