000
AXNT20 KNHC 210524
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 
3N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
3N14W TO 3N22W TO 1N27W TO 2N37W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA 
NEAR 2S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 
7W-38W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO. 10 
KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE 
NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO SE TEXAS. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS 
OVER THE SE GULF FROM 28N84W TO 24N84W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
PRECIPITATION. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS DOT THE 
GULF. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 
10 KT SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION 
OVER THE SW GULF...TO INCLUDE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 
73W-77W WITH WINDS FROM THE NE. 15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS 
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...HONDURAS... 
GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 80W...OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUPPRESSING 
DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT... THE GALE TO END SHORTLY AT 0600 UTC. 
OTHERWISE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N76W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N68W TO THE LOW CENTER TO THE 
COAST OF S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 
NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N42W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
24N28W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 
20W-31W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT 
TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRANSITION TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.       

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA