000 AXNT20 KNHC 200534 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 7N12W 6N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 6N17W AND CONTINUES TO 1N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 29W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN ALABAMA. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT STILL REMAINS JUST SE OF FLORIDA EXTENDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS PROVIDING SOME MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK TROUGHING JUST WEST OF FLORIDA AND THE FRONT...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL IF IT IS TRULY AT THE SURFACE OR NOT. A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE ADDED TO THE ANALYSIS AT 0600 UTC. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. ALOFT...MAINLY SW FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND WEST ATLC. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH COVERING THE SOUTHERN GULF BEFORE BEING PUSHED SOUTH IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN IS HELPING PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN EMBEDDED WITHIN 15-20 KT TRADEWIND FLOW. SOME STRONGER WINDS REACHING 25 KT ARE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND THE NORTHWEST ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N58W AND CONTINUES TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N83W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 200 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT BISECTS A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC. A PAIR OF 1030 AND 1032 MB SURFACE HIGHS ARE CENTERED NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 38N61W AND 40N53W RESPECTIVELY PROVIDING RIDGING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC. A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N42W IS SE OF THE FRONT PROVIDING RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. ALL OF THE HIGH CENTERS ARE SUPPORTING ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN AND SW NORTH ATLC ALONG 64W WITH AXIS CONTINUING NE TOWARD THE NE ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 21N39W SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 30W-38W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO TO THE WEST ALONG 23N52W TO 15N51W WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON