000 AXNT20 KNHC 200003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N14W TO 8N15W AND 6N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N19W TO 2N27W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 29W AND 30W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...1N3W 2N12W 1N23W... AT THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W...1S30W...2S32W 4S38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AT THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N83W...CROSSING THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 27N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND FLORIDA...MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AT LEAST BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AREA OF RAIN/DRIZZLE...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...FOG...AND LOW VISIBILITIES COVER THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO MELBOURNE. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ALREADY IN SOME AREAS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF MELBOURNE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE OBSERVED FROM MELBOURNE TO SAINT AUGUSTINE IN FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA...ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY REACHES THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...INCLUDING THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF 17N88W 22N81W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N76W 13N70W 13N66W 13N60W 12N52W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS MOSTLY SOUTH AMERICA... ITS CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT ARE OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL...FRENCH GUIANA... SURINAME...AND GUYANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND WEST OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD TO THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...TO 12N70W 12N76W 9N79W. THIS INCLUDES POSSIBLE RAIN OR RAINSHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 82W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 2N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 6N88W AND 6N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 300 TO 360 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 12N70W 12N76W 9N79W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS REACHING 30 KNOTS NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 30N60W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 30N60W TO 28N66W AND 27N74W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AT THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N83W...CROSSING THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 27N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N50W 30N60W 25N70W... TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 15N TO 24N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 18N61W 26N55W BEYOND 32N48W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N36W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N41W...TO 1N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N10W AT THE MOROCCO COAST...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N36W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N53W...AND 26N70W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE 32N56W-TO-FLORIDA STRAITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE EXPOSED WATERS FROM 25N TO 29N TO THE WEST OF 73W EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT