000
AXNT20 KNHC 191754
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHERN GUINEA INTO THE 
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 9N13W 6N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 
6N17W AND CONTINUES TO 0N28W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM WITHIN 90 
NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-38W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A WARM FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
FROM 25N80W TO W CUBA AT 23N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 
NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S FLORIDA TO THE E 
GULF OF MEXICO FROM PALM BEACH FLORIDA AT 27N80W TO 25N83W TO 
25N87W. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH 10-15 KT NE TO E WINDS. A GOOD AMOUNT 
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS N OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW 
FLOW PREVAILS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE WARM FRONT TO 
DISSIPATE OVER S FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT IN THE UPPER LEVELS FOR A 
90 KT JETSTREAM TO BE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N WITH ZONAL 
FLOW.     

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N83W TO 
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N85W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 16N86W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...HONDURAS...N GUATEMALA  
...AND BELIZE. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N 
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 
15N W OF 80W...OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT... 
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
32N57W TO 28N65W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA ALONG 27N75W 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE FRONTS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC 
FROM 24N52W TO 15N53W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 31N34W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST 
OF MOROCCO AT 31N10W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 27N20W WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N40W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 32W-40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONTS TO BECOME STATIONARY WITH 
CONTINUED SHOWERS.      

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA