000 AXNT20 KNHC 191131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHERN GUINEA INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 9N13W 4N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N26W EQ31W 1S35W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NORTH AND 90 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MAINLY NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS OF 10-15 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN AREA OF STRONGER WINDS REACHING 20-25 KT IN THE FAR NE CORNER. A COOLER AIRMASS STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...OVERCAST SKIES COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IN FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF SE FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED WEST OF FLORIDA ALONG 25N83W 25N89W. IT IS MOST EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOW-MID LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. ALOFT...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS COVER THE AREA AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES. DRY AIR COVERS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF AND THE GULF COAST STATES WITH SOME MODERATE MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE BASIN YESTERDAY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN IS HELPING PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CORNER ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W TO NORTH OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W. A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN EMBEDDED WITHIN 10-15 KT TRADEWIND FLOW. SOME STRONGER WINDS REACHING 20 KT ARE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND DRIFTS NORTH LIKELY PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 28N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING UP TO 200 NM NW OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 34N38W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N35W...WHICH IS DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 18N41W IS SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 42W-45W...AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 32W-43W. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FIRST IS ALONG 25N52W TO 16N50W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE AXIS. THE SECOND IS FROM 12N45W TO 5N49W. THE AREA OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS MENTIONED ABOVE IS EAST OF THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON