000 AXNT20 KNHC 181754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W TO 3N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N15W TO 3N23W 1N30W... TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...AND ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 12W AND 14W... AND FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 16W AND 32W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE NEAR A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN 18N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 8N46W AND 2N49W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 34N76W OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N71W...TO THE BAHAMAS ACROSS ELEUTHERA ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N83W...TO COASTAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N...AND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 27N. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 78W. THE SKY IS CLEARING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH TIME...IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...PARTS OF THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CORNER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATIFORM CLOUDINESS COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A MEXICO 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N107W...TO A MEXICO 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N100W...TO 18N96W IN MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 89W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 88W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM COASTAL VENEZUELA BEYOND THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STREAMS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE 69W/70W RIDGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE EAST OF 80W...TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE NORTH OF 12N60W 13N70W 12N75W 11N78W 9N80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 5N81W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BEYOND 6N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 88W AND 89W...DISSIPATING RAINSHOWERS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A 22N79W 20N83W 16N87W COLD FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 84W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 34N76W OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N71W...TO THE BAHAMAS ACROSS ELEUTHERA ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N83W...TO COASTAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N...AND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 27N. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 78W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 29N70W TO 21N78W. RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 26N55W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER BEYOND 32N51W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 23N50W AND 15N58W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN 18N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 8N46W AND 2N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 15N TO 27N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W...AND FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N12W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N43W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 31N57W...TO 23N68W...TO THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FEET...FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...WITH THE 31N72W 22N79W COLD FRONT. .25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 78W. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N38W AND 13N45W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 210 NM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW CENTER AND TROUGH. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 18N59W 31N50W. EXPECT ADDITIONALLY...AT 12 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD... 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET WITHIN 150 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N WITHIN 150 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET FROM 10N TO 20N THE EAST OF 45W...AT 24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT