000 AXNT20 KNHC 171141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N24W 3N42W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 2N27W TO 6N37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO E AND AT 17/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW IN GEORGIA INTO THE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE ALONG 27N85W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W TO N GUATEMALA. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W GULF W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1048 MB HIGH OVER NW COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF LATE TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE E GULF TODAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR NE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH FRI. NE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE N GULF BY LATE MON AS ANOTHER FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N84W DOMINATING THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SW TO W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 80W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA REMAINS CREATING FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON STALLING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS LATE FRI THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING SAT THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N62W COVERING THE AREA W OF 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE SAME AREA ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N62W. THIS IS GIVING THE W ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N39W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 24N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE LOW EXTENDING FROM 26N38W ALONG 22N38W TO 17N41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 21N-26N. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TODAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA ON FRI EVENING THEN STALL FROM 32N58W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL RETURN NW THROUGH THE N BAHAMAS ON SUN THEN MOVE SE AGAIN ON MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW