000 AXNT20 KNHC 170553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 4N16W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W 3N34W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 11W-13W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 27W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OVER E TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR THE LINGERING COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING E AND AT 17/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW IN GEORGIA INTO THE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY ALONG 25N88W TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC GIVING THE MOST OF THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W GULF W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1046 MB HIGH OVER UTAH. THE SECOND SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF LATE THU NIGHT. MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SW GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E THU THROUGH EARLY MON THEN INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE N GULF MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N85W DOMINATING THE W CARIBBEAN WITH SW TO W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 75W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA REMAINS CREATING FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THU STALLING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS LATE FRI THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SAT THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N64W COVERING THE AREA W OF 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE SAME AREA ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N63W. THIS IS GIVING THE W ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC IS WEAKENING WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N39W AND THE 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N41W. THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS E OF THE SURFACE LOW EXTENDING FROM 31N35W ALONG 23N36W TO 17N41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT BETWEEN 20N-28N. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE THU WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRI ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA ON FRI EVENING THEN STALL FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL RETURN NW THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON SUN THEN MOVE SE AGAIN ON MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW