000 AXNT20 KNHC 161148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N23W 4N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 2N20W TO 6N33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OVER W TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR THE LINGERING FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS MOVING E AND AT 16/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW IN NW GEORGIA INTO THE GULF ALONG THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER ALONG 26N92W TO MEXICO NEAR VERA CRUZ. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE W GULF TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TO THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC GIVING THE MOST OF THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W GULF W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER TEXAS. THE SECOND SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SE GULF BY THU NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REACH GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/ HONDURAS DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN AND ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND S NICARAGUA S OF 13N. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THU STALLING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NICARAGUA LATE FRI THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SAT AND SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N72W COVERING THE AREA W OF 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE SAME AREA ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER BERMUDA. THIS IS GIVING THE W ATLC FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. A DEEP LAYERED LOW REMAINS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N42W AND A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N41W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W CONTINUING ALONG 27N37W TO 22N39W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 19N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 39W-44W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM NE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE THU WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NW THE FRONT INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON FRI. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE NE OF THE AREA FRI WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI EVENING THEN STALLING FROM 32N58W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE SAT AND DRIFTING NW ON SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW