000 AXNT20 KNHC 160601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N11W TO 6N13W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N19W 4N32W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 5W-10W AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO NW MEXICO IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR THE LINGERING FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT E AND AT 16/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW IN N GEORGIA ACROSS MOBILE ALABAMA ALONG 27N91W TO MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE W GULF TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TO THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF WATERS SW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W GULF W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER TEXAS AND A 1027 MB HIGH OVER ILLINOIS. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC BUT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW REMAINS E OF THE FRONT AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS W THE OF FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE SW GULF WED AND WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N82W DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 72W AND ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND S NICARAGUA S OF 13N. THIS IS LEAVING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THU STALLING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NICARAGUA LATE FRI THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SAT AND SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N72W COVERING THE AREA W OF 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE SAME AREA ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W. THIS IS GIVING THE W ATLC FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. A DEEP LAYERED LOW REMAINS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N42W AND A 999 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 32N41W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W CONTINUING ALONG 27N37W TO 18N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 23N BETWEEN 32W-38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 38W-43W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM NE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE THU WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NW THE FRONT INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON FRI. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE NE OF THE AREA FRI WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N629W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI EVENING THEN STALLING FROM 32N57W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE SAT AND DRIFTING NW ON SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW