000 AXNT20 KNHC 151141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 5N8W CONTINUING ALONG 4N19W TO 3N25W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 8W-14W AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 15W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF AT 15/0900 UTC ENTERING NEAR THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER CONTINUING ALONG 26N92W TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR VERA CRUZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE W GULF TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TO THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER ILLINOIS. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC BLOCKING THE FRONT. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW E OF THE FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 84W-87W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. STATIONARY FRONT WILL START TO MOVE TODAY AND SWEEP THROUGH THE SE GULF BY LATE THU. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS W OF FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER SW GULF EARLY WED THROUGH THU MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N81W DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 62W-87W. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THU STALLING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS BY LATE FRI BEFORE BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO BEYOND 32N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N69W GIVING THE W ATLC FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. A DEEP LAYERED LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N42W AND A 996 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N43W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W CONTINUING ALONG 26N39W TO 20N44W THEN DISSIPATES TO 18N49W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N41W TO 26N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 32W-39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 39W-44W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM E OF THE AZORES. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE THU AND EARLY FRI FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE THROUGH FRI. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE FRI THEN STALL FROM 32N64W TO E CUBA LATE SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW