000
AXNT20 KNHC 150546
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 5N10W CONTINUING ALONG 3N16W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES ALONG 4N27W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 20W-22W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR 
TO 4N BETWEEN 8W-20W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF AT 
15/0300 UTC ENTERING NEAR THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER CONTINUING 
ALONG 27N92W TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR VERA CRUZ. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS 
ANCHORED OVER THE E GULF OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N83W 
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ENE INTO THE W ATLC AND WSW TO THE 
E BAY OF CAMPECHE. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE 
TEXAS AND THE W GULF W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH 
OVER ILLINOIS. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC 
BLOCKING THE FRONT KEEPING THE BOUNDARY NEAR STATIONARY. THE 
SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW E OF THE FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY 
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-87W LEAVING 
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. STATIONARY 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW OVERNIGHT AND TUE THEN MOVE SE TUE 
NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRI AS A COLD FRONT REACHING STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN FRI NIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS W OF 
FRONT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER SW GULF EARLY WED 
THROUGH THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC CROSSES HISPANIOLA INTO 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 15N78W CONTINUING TO 
COSTA RICA. THIS LOW IS BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC 
UPPER TROUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE 
OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS 
GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF 
THE BASIN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 
THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS 
FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 62W-77W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 80W-85W. THE TRADE 
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY FRI AND EXTEND FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
ACROSS W CUBA TO E COAST OF YUCATAN EARLY SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC 
ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND VERO BEACH TO BEYOND 
32N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF THE GREATER 
ANTILLES W OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N69W GIVING 
THE W ATLC FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. A DEEP LAYERED LOW COVERS THE 
CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N42W AND A 998 
MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N43W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW 
THEN RETURNS S INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W CONTINUING 
ALONG 25N41W TO 19N49W. THE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
FRONT IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 31N33W ALONG 24N37W TO 18N45W. 
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS 
THE AREA WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 19N42W TO 29N34W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 
23N BETWEEN 38W-46W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 
20N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM E OF THE 
AZORES. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE GULF OF 
MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC ON FRI. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW