000
AXNT20 KNHC 150001
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W 
TO 4N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N17W 3N30W 1N40W TO WEST OF 
SAO LUIS BRAZIL NEAR 1S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 95 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 27W AND 37W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 21 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA 
NEAR 30N87W TO THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N91W THEN SOUTHWESTWARD 
TO 23N93W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 48 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EAST OF THE STATIONARY 
FRONT RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE REGION. NORTHERLY TO 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 5-25 KT IS WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING WITHIN 115 NM OFF THE COAST OF 
LOUISIANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 
FRONT ARE OVER THE NW GULF ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF 
LOUISIANA...TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO NORTH OF VERACRUZ. ELSEWHERE 
IN THE GULF FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT BEING SUPPORTED 
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN THE FLORIDA  AND 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE 
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE 
WESTERN ATLC AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN 
COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LIGHTER TRADE WINDS 
OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
VICINITY OF JAMAICA BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 16N78W. ELSEWHERE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE 
EXPECTED AS STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN REGION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

IN THE WESTERN ATLC...NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW IS SPREAD 
OVER THE REGION COMING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM 
CENTERED NEAR 32N71W. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE 
REGION BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND STRONG DRY AIR 
SUBSIDENCE. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 
STRONG 996 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 30N44W. THE COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW TO 29N40W THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 
24N41W 22N46W 20N49W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WEST AND EAST OF THE 
LOW SYSTEM...N OF 24N E OF 43W AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. 
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 250 NM 
TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE 
REGION NEAR 30N33W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 24N36W 21N40W 
15N47W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 43W IS 
SUPPORTING BOTH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTING 
IS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 18N. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF 
THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED SOUTH OF THE LOW 
NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 42W AND 49W. IN THE EASTERN ATLC...BOTH 
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATE THE REGION PROVIDING 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM 6N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 30W AND 45W.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS