000
AXNT20 KNHC 131726
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N20W 
TO 4N30W TO 5N45W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 27W-50W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W 
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO 
WITHIN 60 NM NW OF FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N76W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE 
HIGH ALONG 30N TO S MISSISSIPPI. 25 KT N WINDS ARE W OF FRONT. 
15-20 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH RETURN 
FLOW. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
GULF. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS OVER THE NW GULF NW OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO 
TAMPICO MEXICO. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND 
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY PF CAMPECHE WITH 
CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 6N78W. THE 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE W ATLANTIC 
HIGH IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND E CARIBBEAN...S OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO 
RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER 
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING ALL DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT 
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N76W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 992 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N50W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN  
50W-55W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
FROM 32N31W TO 23N40W TO 18N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 
NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
E OF 30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N51W SUPPORTING THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOW AND FRONT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA