000 AXNT20 KNHC 131202 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 5N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N11W TO 4N26W 3N30W 4N40W 5N43W AND 5N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF 4N27W 4N34W 4N39W 5N42W 6N46W... ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE SAME 4N27W 6N46W LINE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN TEXAS...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FROM 50 TO 75 NM TO THE WEST OF THE TEXAS COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...HAZE...LIGHT RAIN... AND LOW VISIBILITIES ARE OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL STATIONS FROM TEXAS TO LOUISIANA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL STATIONS BETWEEN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND IN FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF 30N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N76W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT A COLD FRONT THAT IS INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 95W FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 71W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 35W AND 73W. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN 71W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. REMNANT BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM TO THE NORTH OF 15N60W 15N70W 16N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/0000 UTC WAS 0.48 OF AN INCH IN CURACAO...AND 0.09 OF AN INCH IN GUADELOUPE...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BEYOND 8N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE WATER... IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 2N TO 5N...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 72W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE MONA PASSAGE IS 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W INCLUDING THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N77W... JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE CYCLONIC CENTER IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 22N53W TO 17N59W TO 11N60W NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 35W AND 71W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 26N37W AND 21N44W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 21N44W TO 19N50W. REMNANT BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 25N34W 19N40W 14N50W 11N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM TO THE NORTH OF 15N60W 15N70W 16N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. THE COLD FRONT IS RELATED TO THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N35W 25N28W BEYOND 32N27W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 18N58W 26N68W 27N67W... TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N76W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 28N23W 21N30W TO 12N36W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 20 TO 31 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 20 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 60W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 68W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT