000 AXNT20 KNHC 130602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 10N16W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 5N24W 3N36W 3N45W...TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W/51W...NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE AMAZON RIVER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 35W AND 46W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND/APALACHEE BAY AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...HAZE...AND LIGHT RAIN ARE OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL STATIONS OF TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL STATIONS BETWEEN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND IN FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF 30N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N77W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 29N88W...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS ALONG 30N90W TO 25N94.5W TO 21N97W...AND 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 73W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 35W AND 73W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 19N50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 17N58W...AND ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST TO WEST NEAR 19N71W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N73W 16N66W 16N60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 73W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/0000 UTC WAS 0.48 OF AN INCH IN CURACAO...AND 0.09 OF AN INCH IN GUADELOUPE...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 5N79W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA INTO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND 9N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE WATER...IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10.5 TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10.5N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N78W ABOUT 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE CYCLONIC CENTER IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 22N53W TO 17N59W TO 11N60W NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 73W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 35W AND 73W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 27N36W AND 23N42W. THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 23N42W TO 19N50W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 19N50W TO 17N58W...AND ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST TO WEST NEAR 19N71W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N73W 16N66W 16N60W... AND THEN WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N60W 17N54W 19N50W...WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N50W 20N42W 25N37W 27N35W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N36W BEYOND 32N31W. THE COLD FRONT IS RELATED TO THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N32W 25N28W BEYOND 32N27W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 19N55W 21N61W 27N67W... TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N77W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 28N23W 20N32W TO 11N37W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 24 TO 32 FEET WITH THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS BETWEEN 45W AND 50W...TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W WITH THE 29N35W 19N50W 17N58W 19N71W COLD FRONT. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS BETWEEN 45W AND 55W...TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ALSO AND 8 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE 24N40W 19N60W 23N67W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT