000
AXNT20 KNHC 120524
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W 
TO 4N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
4N14W TO 3N20W TO 4N30W TO 3N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 
0N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 
32W-44W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N70W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH ALONG 30N TO E TEXAS. 
10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE THUS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RETURN 
FLOW. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W 
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH A SMALL 
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF...WHILE TEXAS AND THE OTHER 
GULF STATES HAVE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE JUST 90 NM 
INLAND OVER S TEXAS WITH CONVECTION...MOVING SE.      

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W. THE 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE W ATLANTIC 
HIGH IS PRODUCING 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N BETWEEN 80W-87W. MORE 
SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE E CARIBBEAN 
E OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 77W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING ALL DEEP 
CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N70W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO 27N45W TO 23N53W. A GALE IS N OF 27N W 
OF FRONT TO 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
25N45W TO 20N49W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC OFF THE 
COAST OF SPAIN NEAR 37N14W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM 
THE HIGH TO 20N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N50W 
SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD 
FRONT TO MOVE 600 NM E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
CONVECTION.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA