000 AXNT20 KNHC 111148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 10 TO 17 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS WILL STOP AT THE 12-HOUR TIME PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING IS FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 31N45W TO 23N48W AT 12 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 12 TO 19 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 55W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 6N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N13W TO 4N20W 2N30W AND ALONG 41W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ALABAMA/ MISSISSIPPI BORDER...THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF LOUISIANA. THE FRONT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT...FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF THE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE BEEN WARMING WITH TIME. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING...AND IT IS DISSIPATING NEAR 25N91W. SOME WEATHER STATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS...FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...TO SOUTH TEXAS...HAVE BEEN REPORTING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH LOW VERTICAL VISIBILITIES AND FOG...FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. OTHER STATIONS IN THAT AREA HAVE BEEN REPORTING CLEAR SKIES. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 94W...AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. AREAS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE IN FLORIDA FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 90W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PART OF THE LARGER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 74W/75W SURFACE RIDGE. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 28N94W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND BEYOND 32N79W. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE AREA..EXCEPT POSSIBLY TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...WITHOUT REACHING THE COASTAL PLAINS OF EITHER COUNTRY. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TOWARD CENTRAL CUBA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. MOISTURE AT MANY LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC WAS 0.27 OF AN INCH IN CURACAO... AND 0.08 OF AN INCH IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 5N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE WATER...IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N TO THE WEST OF 66W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 28N53W AND 25N56W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 30N55W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...COVERS THE AREA FROM 25N TO 33N BETWEEN 41W AND 66W. STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 48W AND 70W...RUSHING SOUTHWARD. THIS FRONT IS RELATED TO THE AREA OF THE DEVELOPING GALE IN 12 HOURS IN THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...THAT IS A SPECIAL FEATURE. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND BEYOND 32N79W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 25N39W TO 16N39W. THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N37W 27N40W 23N44W 22N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 27W AND 35W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 74W/75W...PASSING THROUGH 32N TO 20N AND CUBA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N52W 28N58W COLD FRONT AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 65W FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 18N TO 24N TO THE WEST OF 66W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT