000 AXNT20 KNHC 102349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU JAN 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W AND EXTENDS WESTWARD IN THE EASTERN ATLC TO 7N15W. A TRANSITION INTO THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N20W 3N26W 2N36W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ FROM 6S TO 3N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OFF THE BRAZILIAN NORTHERN COAST FROM ILHA DE MARAJO TO SAO LUIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 21 UTC...ACTIVE WEATHER IS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF WHERE A COLD FRONT HAS TRANSITIONED TO A STATIONARY FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W TO 24N93W 20N95W. EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY A VERY ACTIVE SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI ALONG 28N88W 27N89W 25N90W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE SQUALL LINE N OF 24N. STRONG SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF THE SQUALL LINE AXIS AND 70 NM WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF 24N. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHILE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT SUBSIDING AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE EAST PORTION OF THE GULF AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF EAST OF THE SQUALL LINE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KT ARE WEST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DISPLACE SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR LOUISIANA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF DURING THIS PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE FAIR WEATHER BASIN-WIDE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NORTH OF COLOMBIA ALONG WITH MAINLY 20-25 KT TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WESTERN ATLC BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE S OF 30N. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N59W SOUTHEASTWARD TO 23N56W AND A 1017 MB SURFACE LOW FROM WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS. THE LOW POSITIONED NEAR 29N38W AND THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 27N40W 24N42W TO 24N49W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DETECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS