000 AXNT20 KNHC 101151 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 12 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 12 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE AT THE 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS WILL STOP AT THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 31N44W TO 25N52W TO 31N67W AT 36 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 12 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 57W...EXCEPT 18 TO 24 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 30N...AND GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 150 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 4N8W TO 7N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N12W TO 7N14W 3N20W AND 1N25W...CONTINUING IN THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BUT NOT CROSSING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W AND 34W...AND FINALLY CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...AND REMAINING ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 3W AND 9W...FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 17W AND 26W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N100W IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE U.S.A. FROM 14N TO OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 93W AND 110W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORT A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN TEXAS NEAR 32N98W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT REACHES FROM THE 32N98W LOW CENTER TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N94W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 20N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND AREAS OF RAIN...ARE IN THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N BEYOND THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 30N94W 21N97W...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH 30N92W 21N95W. 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N ARE WITHIN 100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ TROUGH. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 23N TO 27N TO THE EAST OF 87W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND BEYOND 32N76W. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THIS WIND FLOW REGIME TO THE WEST OF 72W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 7N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE WATER...IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 14 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 82W...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 82W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND BEYOND 32N76W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 25N38W 16N47W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 30N30W 26N40W 26N50W 30N59W AND 31N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 33W AND 44W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 39N22W TO 34N35W...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N51W. THE TAIL END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT BREAKS UP THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 30N64W TO A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N74W...TOWARD THE COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 18N TO 24N TO THE WEST OF 59W...EXCEPT WIND SPEEDS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE ATLANTIC APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 24N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 77W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 43W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 28N35W TO 25N45W TO 31N60W. 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A COLD FRONT FOR 24 HOURS WILL BE ALONG 31N52W 30N53W 31N65W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT