000
AXNT20 KNHC 092344
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST OF LIBERIA 
FROM 5N9W TO 5N12W. THEN THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N20W 3N26W 
1N32W 1N41W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 
48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-37W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IMPACTING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT 
AS A SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST. 
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE 
GALVESTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI COASTS NEAR 28N95W WITH A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TO NEAR 21N97W. RADAR IMAGERY 
INDICATE REGIONS OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ABOUT 
50 NM WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AXIS. A SECOND REGION OF STRONG 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS FARTHER EAST ALONG A SQUALL 
LINE FROM 29N94W TO 26N94W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SPREAD 
WEST AND NORTH ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND 
MISSISSIPPI. A PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT COMING FROM THE 
LOW CENTER LINES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FROM NEW ORLEANS ALL THE 
WAY THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA TO JACKSONVILLE. A FEW ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THIS REGION OF THE 
GULF. THE SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN NORTHERN MEXICO 
AND TEXAS NEAR 29N102W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED 
BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING 
PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST BEFORE IT 
STARTS TO DISSIPATE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES EXPERIENCING BASIN-WIDE FAIR WEATHER 
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH SUPPORTED BY A 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY 
DRY AIR ALOFT. TRADE WINDS WITH MAINLY 25 KT SPREAD OVER EASTERN 
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED SOUTH OF LA 
HISPANIOLA ALL THE WAY TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT 
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC 
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N49W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED 
BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...CARIBBEAN...WEST ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC WEST OF 54W. 
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EAST OF 54W AND THE 
EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 
29N34W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 26N43W 26N50W BECOMING 
STATIONARY AT 26N52W TO 30N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED W 
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. 
ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR