000 AXNT20 KNHC 091729 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 6N10W TO 7N13W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 7N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... ACTIVE WEATHER IS IMPACTING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED JUST INLAND OF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N97W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TO NEAR 25N99W. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ABOUT 75 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AXIS. A SECOND AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS FARTHER EAST ALONG A SQUALL LINE FROM 29N94W TO 27N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SPREAD WEST AND NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND MISSISSIPPI. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO LINES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE LOW CENTER IN TEXAS ALL THE WAY INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERCAST SKIES ARE SEEN IN THIS AREA WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 28N103W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS PRESENT EAST OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER BASIN-WIDE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN ALONG 71W ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS HELPING SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF COLOMBIA ALONG WITH MAINLY 25 KT TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 35N52W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN...WEST ATLC ALONG 71W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC..WHICH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT DIPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N30W 28N39W BECOMING STATIONARY AT 27N50W TO 32N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS. ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON