000 AXNT20 KNHC 080604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE JAN 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 7N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N14W TO 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W...CURVING TOWARD THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W...AT THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 11W AND 31W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 1N BETWEEN 7W AND 8W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 31W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TEXAS AND THE OTHER U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N61W TO 29N70W TO 27N77W...ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W...TO 25N82W JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W... AND FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...SOME AREAS OF FOG...AND SOME AREAS OF RAIN COVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST...TEXAS TO THE SOUTH OF 30N...AND MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 102W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS INLAND...ALONG 33N/34N FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO TEXAS. A PART OF A RIDGE CONTINUES THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS... ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST...TO 19N96W...JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WIND CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 93W FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N59W...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERNMOST CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND FROM FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 6N77W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST...BEYOND 5N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE WATER...IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNING THAT IS FORECAST TO START IN 24 HOURS... 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 82W. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 33N61W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 29N70W TO 27N77W...ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W... TO 25N82W JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...AND FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N59W...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERNMOST CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W...TO THE SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 24N28W AND 19N32W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 28N30W AND 25N34W. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 25N34W TO 24N37W AND 23N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N25W 29N30W 24N40W 24N46W 27N50W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N31W TO 29N40W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N57W...TO 27N65W...AND TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABACO ISLAND NEAR 26N78W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N25W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MAURITANIA...FROM THE NORTHERN SECTION INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTION...AND TO 15N19W ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT SOLELY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 31N63W 26N80W COLD FRONT AND 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF 21N50W 31N46W. FROM 12N TO 18N W OF 50W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT IN E SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 22N E OF 65W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN PRIMARILY NE TO E SWELL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT