000 AXNT20 KNHC 071203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 07 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W 5N13W AND 4N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N17W TO 2N25W 1N30W AND 1N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 88W. THIS WIND FLOW PATTERN EXISTS IN ADVANCE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 28N80W IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 28N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 28N83W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO NORTHEASTERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND BELIZE...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 94W. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AN 850 MB TROUGH AND A 700 MB TROUGH THAT RUN FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THROUGH NICARAGUA AND NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS...TO GUATEMALA AND THE PART OF MEXICO THAT IS BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N98W AND 19N97W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 93W FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N65W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 80W... AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND BELIZE...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 94W. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AN 850 MB TROUGH AND A 700 MB TROUGH THAT RUN FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH NICARAGUA AND NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS... TO GUATEMALA AND THE PART OF MEXICO THAT IS BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND FROM FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 6N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE WATER...IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 82W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 82W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N65W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W...TO THE SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50 AND 70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 30N70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 24N28W AND 19N32W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 27N33W AND 25N39W. THE FRONT IS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 25N39W TO 24N43W AND 26N49W. A SECOND COLD FRONT...THAT IS ABOUT 150 TO 210 NM TO THE NORTHWEST...IS FOLLOWING THE FIRST ONE...PASSING THROUGH 32N33W TO 31N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N25W 29N30W 24N40W 24N46W 27N50W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N45W...TO 27N63W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABACO ISLAND NEAR 27N78W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N13W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N24W AND 23N38W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WESTERN ALGERIA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N8W...INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 17N21W TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 7N23W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT SOLELY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 31N77W 28N81W COLD FRONT AND 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 54W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 18N TO THE WEST OF 50W...20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT