000 AXNT20 KNHC 070550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 07 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 4N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 3N38W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W/45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 93W. THIS WIND FLOW PATTERN EXISTS IN ADVANCE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 28N81W...TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N86W. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND TOWARD NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS/ SOUTHERN BELIZE TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 29N91W 24N94W 18N94W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 26N80W AT THE FLORIDA COAST BEYOND 32N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W TO 19N96W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 27N83W 25N86W 21N88W COLD FRONT...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 93W FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AROUND THAT TIME WITH 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N65W...ABOUT 200 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 80W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND FROM FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W...AND CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS/SOUTHERN BELIZE TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AN 850 MB TROUGH AND A 700 MB TROUGH THAT RUN FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA TO NICARAGUA AND NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS...TO GUATEMALA AND MEXICO THAT IS BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 4N77W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST...TO 7N82W TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BEYOND 6N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE WATER...IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 81W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N65W...ABOUT 200 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 30N TO THE BETWEEN 30W AND 70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 23N80W AT THE CUBA COAST TO 30N70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 27N31W AND 23N33W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 27N34W AND 25N38W. THE FRONT IS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 25N38W TO 24N43W AND 25N48W. A SECOND COLD FRONT...THAT IS ABOUT 250 TO 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST...IS FOLLOWING THE FIRST ONE...PASSING THROUGH 32N36W TO 31N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N30W 25N40W 25N45W 26N50W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N50W...TO 28N64W AND 27N79W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N13W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N30W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS PASSES THROUGH 23N14W IN THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 20N21W TO 9N25W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT SOLELY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 57W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N TO THE WEST OF 45W...20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 62W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT