000
AXNT20 KNHC 062348
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 4N20W. 
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N20W TO 
3N39W TO EQ44W TO BRAZIL AT EQ50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS S OF THE ITCZ FROM 3N-2S BETWEEN 25W-35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 35W-50W. 
     
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF THE MOUTH OF THE 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR 27N89W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE 
LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E 
FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. W OF THE COLD 
FRONT...15-25 NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALSO W OF THE COLD FRONT... 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 92W-94W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO N OF 23N BETWEEN 83W-95W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS 
RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA N OF 28N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W 
WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
OVER THE E GULF PRODUCING SW FLOW AND MORE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE AND A COLD 
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH 
CONVECTION.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH LIGHTEST 
WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND 
GUATEMALA E OF 96W. MORE SHOWERS ARE S OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-18N 
BETWEEN 78W-82W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN 
E OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS 
HOWEVER FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WHILE 
PRECIPITATION ADVECTS OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO N 
FLORIDA AT 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N56W. 
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N30W TO 26N40W TO 
25N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N 
OF 29N BETWEEN 23W-32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF 
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT 
TO EXTEND FROM 32N67W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W WITH CONVECTION. 
ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH 
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA