000 AXNT20 KNHC 061149 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 5N15W AND 4N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES FROM 4N18W TO 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...TO 1S39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS WIND FLOW PATTERN EXISTS IN ADVANCE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND BEYOND OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 28N/29N...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W...CURVING TO 27N94W... TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N95W... CONTINUING TO 20N92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 91W AND 92W AND FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 89W AND 90W...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 25N91W...AND BETWEEN 91W AND 92W FROM MEXICO TO 24N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO ALONG 90W TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N82W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THIS AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS IN SOME OF THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY NEAR VERO BEACH AND MELBOURNE...AND ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST ROUGHLY FROM NAPLES TO 28N...AND IN INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF FLORIDA ALSO ROUGHLY FROM 25N/26N TO 28N. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W TO 19N95W...IN THE NORTHWESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO 15N89W IN WESTERN HONDURAS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... MIATWDEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 28N83W 27N95W 24N95W 19N92W STATIONARY FRONT...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 21N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 95W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N64W...ABOUT 210 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 83W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GUYANA NEAR 5N60W TO 11N60W AND 14N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF 74W AND FROM FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W...AND CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING IN BELIZE. THE GFS MODEL GIVES THE HINT OF AN 850 MB LEVEL TROUGH WITH A DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW PATTERN AT 700 MB... IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N73W IN COLOMBIA TO 5N80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 9N85W AND SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 8N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT SOLELY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE WATER...IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 80W FROM THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA SOUTHWARD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W...FOR NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS... AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 14 FEET FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 81W...20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N64W...ABOUT 210 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 83W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 5N TO THE WEST OF 40W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N36W TO 29N41W AND 26N46W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 30N43W 29N50W 28N60W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 28N60W AND IT CONTINUES TO 28N74W...TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 28N/29N. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 32N TO THE WEST OF 62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO THE NORTH OF 25N62W 27N40W BEYOND 32N20W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N12W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N22W TO 27N40W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N56W...TO 26N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N13W IN THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 17N17W ALONG THE COAST OF MAURITANIA TO 11N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT SOLELY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N TO THE WEST OF 50W...20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 27N35W 19N64W...20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 51W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT