000 AXNT20 KNHC 060520 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 6N15W AND 3N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES FROM 3N18W TO 1N21W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 21W AND 37W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...REACHING THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS WIND FLOW PATTERN EXISTS IN ADVANCE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 28N91W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N95W...CONTINUING TO 20N92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 93W AND 94W GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD A BIT WITH TIME...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 25N91W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 95W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TOWARD THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE LAST 3 TO 4 HOURS IN SOME OF THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY NEAR VERO BEACH AND MELBOURNE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 28N91W 25N94W 19N92W SURFACE TROUGH...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH...AND 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N66W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 83W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA NEAR 7N63W TO 15N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF 73W AND FROM FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING IN BELIZE... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GFS MODEL GIVES THE HINT OF AN 850 MB LEVEL TROUGH WITH A DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW PATTERN AT 700 MB...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 6N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT SOLELY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE WATER...IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 80W FROM THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA SOUTHWARD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...FOR NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FEET FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 81W...20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N66W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 20W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N38W TO 30N43W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 30N43W 29N50W 28N60W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 28N60W AND IT CONTINUES TO 28N72W AND 28N79W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 27N TO 32N TO THE WEST OF 62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND TO THE NORTH OF 27N IN FLORIDA...AND TO THE NORTH OF 25N62W 26N50W 25N40W BEYOND 32N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N15W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N24W TO 27N40W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N53W...TO 26N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N14W IN THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 18N17W ALONG THE COAST OF MAURITANIA TO 12N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT SOLELY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF 31N55W 26N40W 20N54W...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 17N TO THE WEST OF 55W... 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 62W...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT