000
AXNT20 KNHC 060006
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AT 7N11W TO 3N17W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 3N17W TO EQ23W 
TO EQ30W TO BRAZIL AT 3S43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 14W-40W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NE 
MEXICO NEAR 25N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF 
SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO THE SURFACE LOW TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N92W. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW 
AND THE TEXAS/NE MEXICO COASTS IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS 
FROM 22N-26N W OF FRONT. THIS GALE IS FORECAST TO END SHORTLY AT 
0000 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 
92W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE W GULF OF 
MEXICO W OF 90W. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND 
SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 90W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W 
OF 90W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF PRODUCING SW FLOW AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE LOW TO 
DISSIPATE AND A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA IS 
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 10.5N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W. THIS 
GALE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC SUNDAY. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS WITH 
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER N BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND 
FROM N NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP 
CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS HOWEVER FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHILE PRECIPITATION ADVECTS OVER THE 
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N41W TO 
30N50W TO 28N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 28N70W TO N OF 
THE BAHAMAS AT 28N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONTS. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N52W. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE LEADING PORTION OF THE FRONT TO MOVE 
SE OVER THE E ATLANTIC... WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC RETROGRADES BACK N AS A WARM FRONT.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA