000 AXNT20 KNHC 051739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT JAN 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 04N08W TO 01N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N13W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 23W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 1500 UTC...A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN GULF FROM 19N92W TO 27N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 88W AND THE TROUGH AXIS. NW TO N WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXIST TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND NE TO E WINDS OF 15-25 KT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WEST OF THE TROUGH ARE FUNNELING SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF COOL AND DRY AIR EQUATORWARD ALONG THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTLINES. THE CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES IN THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR 24N85W. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DURING THE NEXT DAY...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PUSH POLEWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INDUCING NE TO E TRADEWINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS UP TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE JUST NORTH OF COLUMBIA. NO SUBSTANTIAL DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AS TYPICAL SUBSIDENT RIDGING IS APPARENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TODAY. SOME LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE UPSLOPE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS CENTRAL AMERICA. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GALE CONDITIONS NEAR COLUMBIA WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD UP TO 29N70W TO 31N48W. WEST OF ABOUT 68W...THE FRONT IS STATIONARY. EAST OF ABOUT 55W THE FRONT IS A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT. IN BETWEEN...THE FRONT IS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE EXTENDED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA BETWEEN 65W AND 73W...A NEW APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE EXISTING WESTERNMOST STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE EASTERN COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE. NONE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS HIGHER THAN 25 KT. SOUTH OF THE FRONTS...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 26N DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE...THE NE TRADEWINDS ARE TYPICALLY 20 KT OR LESS. THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION AS WELL AS NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE EASTERNMOST ATLANTIC IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 21N16W TO TO A BASE NEAR 03N30W. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ASIDE FROM THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 25N45W ON SUNDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA