000 AXNT20 KNHC 051139 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N08W TO 02N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 19W-38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 18W-32W. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 26N14W TO A BASE NEAR 06N33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING SOUTHEAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF AND FOCUSES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 20N92W TO 26N97W WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 21N BETWEEN 92W-97W. ELSEWHERE...A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N81W TO 23N87W. WHILE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS HAVE 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE AFFECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT FRONT...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF LATE SATURDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. ONCE THE BOUNDARY CLEARS THE REGION ON MONDAY...E-SE WINDS AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED THIS MORNING BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 20N68W THAT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. AT THE SURFACE...TRADES REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 30 KT WITH GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES QUICK-MOVING LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 12N-18N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 50W ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 20N68W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM E-NE THEN EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 28N TO BEYOND 50W. WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES ALONG 36N BETWEEN 38W-56W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N48W TO 29N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROGRESSING OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 36N70W. WHILE THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH OF 32N...A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 29N62W TO 30N69W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 62W-80W. FARTHER EAST...OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N60W. THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ROUGHLY ALONG 25N BETWEEN 25W-75W. FINALLY...OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 26N14W TO A BASE NEAR 06N33W THAT SUPPORTS A 480 NM WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 04N30W TO 14N17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN