000 AXNT20 KNHC 042311 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 04 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY DOES NOT EXTEND OVER ATLC WATERS. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N20W 2N30W EQ40W 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 21W-28W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 38W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 26N82W 21N94W 19N91W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS NORTH OF THE THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 26N97W 21N94W. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 300 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT LACKS MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS CENTERED OVER NE TEXAS. THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTING NE TO E WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH A FEW OBSERVATIONS REACHING 30 KT. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE NW WINDS COVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A PORTION OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF MAY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE THE REST REMAINS STATIONARY BEFORE THE WHOLE AXIS MOVES BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERCAST SKIES AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE AREA CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT 05/0600 UTC. A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW MOSTLY NOTED BETWEEN 12N-15N IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 14N-19N IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA WITH A 1024 MB HIGH CENTER IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N44W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY EQUALLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND COVERING THE BASIN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN...INTO THE ATLC TO 40W. HOWEVER...A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N68W TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W SUPPORTING OVERCAST SKIES AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS UP TO 200 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CLIPS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RIDGE ALONG 31N35W TO 29N46W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 6N39W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE ITCZ TO THE COAST OF AFRICA EAST OF 30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON