000
AXNT20 KNHC 031135
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA AT 
5N9W TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 5N14W AND CONTINUES ALONG 
5N25W 2N40W TO THE COAST OF N BRAZIL AT EQ48W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 19W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE ALONG 25N90W 21N94W 18N94W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN 
AND SHOWERS W OF 85W AND NW OF FRONT. 25-30 KT N WINDS ARE NW OF 
FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. 10 KT SE-S 
SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR 
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF A LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING SW FLOW. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF NW OF 
THE SURFACE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S 
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS 
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER 
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. MORE SHOWERS ARE 
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 
18N77W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP 
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO BE 
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N62W TO 31N75W TO N 
FLORIDA AT 29N81W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N57W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N35W TO 23N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 50W WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 
15N E OF 50W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO 
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS...WHILE THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FRONT DISSIPATES. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA