000 AXNT20 KNHC 021757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 3N TO 3N10W AND 4N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N13W TO 5N23W 2N30W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N TO THE EAST OF 10W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 24W AND 34W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 17W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N77W...ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF CUBA...ALONG THE COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS IS WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N102W ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO...TO 22N100W...THROUGH 29N97W NEAR VICTORIA TEXAS...BEYOND NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 27N90W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...TO 24N94W...19N96W AT THE MEXICO COAST...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO 23N103W IN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TO A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IN MEXICO NEAR 23N100W...TO 19N97W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE 30N85W 19N96W COLD FRONT...AS INITIAL CONDITIONS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N77W...ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF CUBA...ALONG THE COAST. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PROMINENT IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO HIGH LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 76W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 76W...FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWARD AND THEN CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 13N70W TO THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 86W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 82W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC-TO-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THAT MEANS THAT LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ROUGHLY TO THE WEST OF 37W/38W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 27N34W. THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE AND MORE LESS APPARENT...AND IT APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AND BLENDING WITH A 30N26W 25N25W 19N26W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 26N40W 22N48W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 22N48W TO 20N60W AND 20N69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N37W 27N40W 24N47W 21N56W 20N65W AND 21N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N37W 15N48W 15N60W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 26N42W TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N46W...TO 26N59W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N66W...TO 27N80W ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 28N30W AND 21N37W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 48W AND 62W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS OR LESS AND 12 TO 17 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT