000
AXNT20 KNHC 021137
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY REMAINS SOUTH OF NW AFRICA 
EXTENDING FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4N TO 2N10W. THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AT 2N10W AND CONTINUES TO 5N25W TO 1N33W TO 2N42W TO THE 
COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 6W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 18W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 33N84W. A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
28N90W TO 25N94W TO N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AT 20N96W. RADAR 
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM W OF FRONT. 25-30 
KT N WINDS ARE W OF FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR 
ADVECTION. 10 KT SE-S SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE 
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS 
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER 
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. MORE SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO... 
AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO BE 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N65W. A 
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N37W TO 
25N42W TO 23N46W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO N 
OF PUERTO RICO AT 20N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 
22N BETWEEN 32W-38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM NW OF 
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-55W. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
FROM 32N60W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA