000
AXNT20 KNHC 011122
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY REMAINS SOUTH OF NW AFRICA 
EXTENDING FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4N TO 4N13W. THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AT 3N13W AND CONTINUES TO 5N19W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF 
BRAZIL AT EQ47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
1N-7N BETWEEN 16W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N71W. 
10-20 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF W 
OF 95W. A COLD FRONT IS ABOUT 60 NM INLAND OVER S TEXAS WITH 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE  
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TUXPAN MEXICO 
WITH CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS 
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND 
OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. MORE SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO 
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N71W. A 
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N41W TO 25N50W TO 
21N60W TO N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT 20N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 38W-42W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE 
FRONT TO 70W. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 29N41W TO 22N49W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N23W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 25W-60W 
WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 26N30W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS 
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N34W TO 23N46W WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA