000 AXNT20 KNHC 271137 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU DEC 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N31W 3N41W CROSSING THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER LIBERIA BETWEEN 7W-12W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-28W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 3N36W TO 6N42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS IN THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 27/0900 UTC CLIPS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR COLON. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE SE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS MOST OF THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT AND OUT OF THE GULF BY SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT AT 27/09000 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR COLON OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO BELIZE NEAR 16N89W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 80W AND THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT ALONG 20N84W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TODAY. THERE WILL FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON WITH SEAS BUILDING THROUGH SAT THEN SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE FAR W ATLC N OF 30N W OF 68W SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 27/0900 UTC NEAR 32N72W ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND AND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR COLON INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND S OF 25N TO OVER CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N59W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 37W-52W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N42W ALONG 27N45W TO 21N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 24N. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 37W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 15N W OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OFF PORTUGAL. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU EVENING THEN WEAKEN FROM 32N59W TO E CUBA FRI. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF FLORIDA SAT EVENING AND EXTEND FROM 32N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW