000
AXNT20 KNHC 252350
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 
5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W TO 4N30W TO 1N400W TO NE 
BRAZIL AT EQ50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5-11N 
BETWEEN 20W-30W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 997 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI 
NEAR 32N90W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AT 
29N93W TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. RADAR IMAGERY 
SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT 
N OF 28N. MOBILE ALABAMA IS REPORTING SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO A 
STRONG SQUALL LINE. ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER 
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. ELSEWHERE OVER 
THE GULF...SE OF FRONT...10-20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED WITH 
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR 35N93W SUPPORTING THE 
SURFACE FRONTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS S TO THE NW GULF. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL 
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONSIDERABLE COLD 
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...TOGETHER WITH 20-25 KT NW 
SURFACE WINDS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS 
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 68W ESPECIALLY OVER TRINIDAD. MORE SHOWERS ARE 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND 
NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER 
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 11N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NORTHERN 
SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED 
SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 84W. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM 32N49W TO N OF THE MONA PASSAGE AT 20N67W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 28N-34N BETWEEN 
45W-49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF 
THE FRONT. FURTHER E...A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE 
AZORES NEAR 34N29W. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N GUYANA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 55W-60W. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-70W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA