000 AXNT20 KNHC 251805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 5N13W AND 5N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N15W TO 5N20W AND 4N25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...TO 1S39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 30W...POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF 7N30W 4N36W 4N47W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE 93W/94W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS MOVING OVER FLORIDA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING IN TEXAS. THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE COMPLEX AND STILL OVER LAND. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N98W 26N90W BEYOND 30N82W. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH THE SURFACE- TO-LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N61W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND 26N82W ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 26N82W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE AREA OF EASTERN HONDURAS/ NORTHERN NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 93W...AS INITIAL CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SIX HOURS OR SO. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS ARE TO RANGE FROM 9 TO 12 FEET...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 14N60W 14N70W 12N82W 10N83W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...TOWARD A TROUGH THAT REACHES THE COAST OF GUYANA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. THE 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD...ACCORDING TO THE BULLETIN MIATPTPAN...WAS 0.85 OF AN INCH. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE COAST OF GUYANA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N61W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND 26N82W ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 26N82W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE AREA OF EASTERN HONDURAS/ NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 8N81W IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...SKIRTING THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...BEYOND 9N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF 76W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 81W AND 89W. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. THE CYCLONIC SENSE OF THE WIND FLOW IS COMPARATIVELY MORE PRONOUNCED BETWEEN 76W AND 85W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 77W AND 84W ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE INITIAL CONDITIONS...20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET SEA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 25N72W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE WATER THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...TO THE NORTH OF 32N/33N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N73W 31N76W 29N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 61W AND 65W AND FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N61W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND 26N82W ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 26N82W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE AREA OF EASTERN HONDURAS/ NORTHERN NICARAGUA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 24N55W TO 18N55W...TOWARD THE COAST OF GUYANA. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE ASSOCIATED LOOSELY WITH THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 27N56W TO 23N62W AND 20N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 37W AND 55W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A GALE WARNING AT THE 30 HOUR TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO THE NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 31N79W 28N81W COLD FRONT...SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 31N51W TO 21N45W TO 18N35W. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 76W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH THE ADVENT OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT