000 AXNT20 KNHC 250548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N14W TO 8N16W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N23W 2N35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 17W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 55W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE NE GULF COAST TO OVER THE E CONUS ALONG 89W. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE GULF TO 24N93W. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE N GULF COUPLED WITH MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMING E ACROSS MEXICO/S TEXAS TO OVER THE AREA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 25N88W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE S GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NW GULF LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM THE SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO TUE EVENING THEN FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE CONFLUENCE OF THE UPPER FLOW AND THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N75W ALONG 13N81W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA NEAR NEAR THE BORDER. THE SAME EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF A LINE FROM 18N68W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS W OF 70W THROUGH EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A MODERATE BREEZE LATE TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NE. A NEW HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG 30N WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 32N50W TO 28N55W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 23N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 51W-57W. THE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 33N59W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N E OF THE ABOVE FRONT TO 15N ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N32W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA SUPPORTING WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N10W TO JUST E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 27N15W. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE E ALONG 31N. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATE WED. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N77W TO S FLORIDA WED EVENING FROM 32N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU EVENING AND FROM 32N62W TO 22N77W FRI EVENING AS A DISSIPATING FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW