000 AXNT20 KNHC 240539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON DEC 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N11W TO 6N12W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W 3N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 16W-26W AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 26W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 53W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE NE GULF COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA/ MISSISSIPPI BORDER GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO 24N96W. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE N GULF COUPLED WITH MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO/S TEXAS TO OVER THE N GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND TEXAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE S GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE N GULF MON THEN STALL AND MOVE N ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST STATES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF LATE TUE FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TUXPAN MEXICO TUE EVENING AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED EVENING BEFORE STALLING AND THEN DISSIPATING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF BY THU. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N69W TO NEAR 17N73W. NE TO E TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W LEAVING THAT AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE W ATLC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 70W THROUGH TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N54W TO 30N56W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 24N61W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 20N69W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N20W NARROWING ALONG 20N25W TO 12N32W SUPPORTING WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N21W TO 21N28W. STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ON MON. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT WILL MOVE E ALONG 30N THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TUE INTO WED AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATE WED. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N79W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WED EVENING AND FROM 32N63W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW