000 AXNT20 KNHC 221131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 6N15W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N25W 3N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 20W AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 31W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DEEPENING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CONUS TO 20N INTO THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 25N W OF 92W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD E ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH SUN. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE W GULF BY MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE TUE AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 22/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA NEAR HOLGUIN ALONG 18N82W TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-70W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 70W. THE N CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN SAT THEN DISSIPATE SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 67W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 22/0900 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N65W ALONG 26N70W CROSSING THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR HOLGUIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO BUILD E INTO THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 25N63W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-45W SUPPORTING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W CONTINUING ALONG 23N40W TO 19N49W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N34W ALONG 22N39W TO 18N47W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N37W TO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 27N44W CONTINUING ALONG 26N45W TO 23N51W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER N MOROCCO. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N62W TO E CUBA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW