000 AXNT20 KNHC 210552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 7N13W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N15W 4N34W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 3N3W TO 2N9W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO 29N ACROSS THE N GULF SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 21/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER NE FLORIDA BETWEEN TAMPA AND CEDAR KEY CONTINUING ALONG 24N87W 21N92W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 17N94W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT LIES ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N TO OVER FLORIDA. STRONG N WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR SW GULF. THESE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER TEXAS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF BY MIDDAY FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE FAR W GULF INTO FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SAT AND SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE N GULF. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE SE OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA TO NICARAGUA WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 84W-88W AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF CARIBBEAN PASSES EASTWARD ACROSS W ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY MIDDAY FRI REACHING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN BY SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS AT 21/0300 UTC IS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA CROSSING FLORIDA JUST W OF JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS PRECEDE THE FRONT AND ARE W OF A LINE FROM NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIA TO BEYOND 32N77W. A UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W OVER THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N73W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ABOVE. SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 29N70W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 35W-60W SUPPORTING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W CONTINUING ALONG 24N50W TO 21N60W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 21N. GALE FORCE WINDS A BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N E OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF N MOROCCO. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 32N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI EVENING AND FROM 32N59W 26N65W TO E CUBA SAT EVENING THEN WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE SUN INTO MON. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 30N LATE TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW