000 AXNT20 KNHC 170604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON DEC 17 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AFRICA...BUT IT DOES NOT REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N25W TO 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W... TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 17W AND 19W AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 26W AND 36W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD AND GENTLE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH WEST TEXAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. ONE COLD FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N. THESE CLOUDS ARE ON TOP OF SURFACE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING OVER BERMUDA...TO 31N70W...TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W...INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 17N62W 13N70W. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 17N62W 13N70W LINE. SOME OF THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS RESIDUAL FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SOME OF THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS RELATED MORE TO RESIDUAL WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BROAD AND GENTLE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 13N TO 19N...WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N77W IN NORTHWESTERN COASTAL COLOMBIA...TO 5N81W 9N85W AND BEYOND 7N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE REACHING AND/OR HAVE BEEN REACHING PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND PANAMA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N55W TO 18N57W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A FIRST SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 31N50W TO 28N55W 26N57W 25N60W 24N61W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N70W 27N63W 27N55W BEYOND 32N47W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH 32N37W TO 28N43W 24N48W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N51W TO 19N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N37W 26N43W 24N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N48W 13N53W 10N55W 6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N42W 18N46W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM COASTAL GUYANA TO 12N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W NEAR TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA. A SURFACE RIDGE ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING OVER BERMUDA...TO 31N70W...TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W...INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N8W IN EASTERN MAURITANIA TO 15N17W IN COASTAL SENEGAL...TO 7N26W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N18W JUST TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 29N27W 26N32W 17N39W AND 8N49W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...20 KNOT WINDS AND 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 31N51W 23N46W 16N35W...20 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 28N55W 24N60W SURFACE TROUGH...AND WITHIN 36 HOURS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT