000 AXNT20 KNHC 160525 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 4N21W 5N30W 3N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. NUMEROUS/ SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 34W-37W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 36W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 30W-36W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 36W-43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 13N50W TO 4N48W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 48W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS S MEXICO/E BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W-84W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 22N W OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE E OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO MON FROM TAMPA TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AND MOVE SE OF THE GULF WED. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM SW HAITI NEAR 18N73W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE TROUGH. NE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA TO NICARAGUA S OF 13N W OF 80W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WED. THE TRADES WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE W ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH 32N53W INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N53W ALONG 27N58W TO 23N65W. A SWATH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS WITHIN 250 NM W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LEAVING THIS FRONT WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE ABOVE FRONT COVERING THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N47W ALONG 25N49W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 22N51W CONTINUING ALONG 18N52W TO 14N56W. THIS LOW/TROUGH HAS LOST ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N21W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS MON NIGHT AND REACH FROM 32N74W TO THE N BAHAMAS TUE AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WED. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT TUE AND WED. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST LATE THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW