000 AXNT20 KNHC 131759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU DEC 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AFRICA BUT IT DOES NOT REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W 4N30W AND 2N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N34W 5N38W 7N42W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 7W AND 24W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W AWAY FROM THE SCATTERED STRONG PRECIPITATION. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE WEST OF 70W... INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ENOUGH OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXISTS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO 28N78W...CROSSING FLORIDA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TO 24N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM 22N92W TO 21N95W AND 18N94W IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W... AND TO THE NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N99W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...TO 19N97W AND 16N97W IN MEXICO...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A GALE WARNING STILL EXISTS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 90W...AS THE INITIAL CONDITIONS WITH THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE...WITH WIND SPEEDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET AT THE 24 HOUR TIME OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 79W. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 72W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 90W...CROSSING EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA AND THE REST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 17N...CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD BEYOND COLOMBIA. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 69W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 80W...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 82W...MORE OR LESS...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N50W. A TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE 23N50W AND 26N47W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 13N55W AND 10N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N45W 15N48W 10N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 45W...REMAINING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W...AND FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE IS ALONG 30N...FROM 10W...THROUGH A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34W...TO 30N57W... TO 29N69W...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 19N45W 10N50W SURFACE TROUGH...AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 46W...TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 48W WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET... 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 65W...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 71W. THESE ARE THE INITIAL CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO 28N78W...CROSSING FLORIDA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT